← Back to fixtures

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace

Sun 23 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 37 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Newcastle win: 51.4%

Draw: 23.5%

Crystal Palace win: 25.1%

Predicted: Newcastle

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.27

More corners: Newcastle (64.3% home / 35.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Newcastle

Yes

Probability Newcastle wins or draws: 69.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Newcastle Clearest lean of the available outcomes (51% vs next-best 25%). (51.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Newcastle (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Newcastle win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.